Search results for "Bayesian [statistics]"
showing 10 items of 228 documents
An innovative approach to manage uncertainties and stock diversity in the EPBD cost-optimal methodology
2018
The EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) 2010/31/EU is a step in the right direction to promote near zero energy buildings (NZEB) in a step-wise manner, starting with minimum energy performance and cost optimal thresholds for “reference buildings” (RBs) for each category. Nevertheless, a standard method for defining RBs does not exist, which led to a great divergence between MS in the level of detail used to define RBs for the EPBD cost-optimal analysis. Such lack of harmonisation between MS is further evident given the resulting large discrepancies in energy performance indicators even between countries having similar climate. Furthermore, discrepancies of 30% or higher betw…
Mapping child maltreatment risk: a 12-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood influences.
2017
Abstract Background ‘Place’ matters in understanding prevalence variations and inequalities in child maltreatment risk. However, most studies examining ecological variations in child maltreatment risk fail to take into account the implications of the spatial and temporal dimensions of neighborhoods. In this study, we conduct a high-resolution small-area study to analyze the influence of neighborhood characteristics on the spatio-temporal epidemiology of child maltreatment risk. Methods We conducted a 12-year (2004–2015) small-area Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemiological study with all families with child maltreatment protection measures in the city of Valencia, Spain. As neighborhood units…
Properties of the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW170817
2019
On August 17, 2017, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors observed a low-mass compact binary inspiral. The initial sky localization of the source of the gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, allowed electromagnetic observatories to identify NGC 4993 as the host galaxy. In this work, we improve initial estimates of the binary's properties, including component masses, spins, and tidal parameters, using the known source location, improved modeling, and recalibrated Virgo data. We extend the range of gravitational-wave frequencies considered down to 23 Hz, compared to 30 Hz in the initial analysis. We also compare results inferred using several signal models, which ar…
Recent Advances in Bayesian Inference in Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics Thanks to the MultiNest Algorithm
2012
We present a new algorithm, called MultiNest, which is a highly efficient alternative to traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of posterior distributions. MultiNest is more efficient than MCMC, can deal with highly multi-modal likelihoods and returns the Bayesian evidence (or model likelihood, the prime quantity for Bayesian model comparison) together with posterior samples. It can thus be used as an all-around Bayesian inference engine. When appropriately tuned, it also provides an exploration of the profile likelihood that is competitive with what can be obtained with dedicated algorithms.
The Bayesian Learning Automaton — Empirical Evaluation with Two-Armed Bernoulli Bandit Problems
2009
The two-armed Bernoulli bandit (TABB) problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of two arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting either in a reward or a penalty. The reward probabilities of each arm are unknown, and thus one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information.
On incorporating the paradigms of discretization and Bayesian estimation to create a new family of pursuit learning automata
2013
Published version of an article in the journal: Applied Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10489-013-0424-x There are currently two fundamental paradigms that have been used to enhance the convergence speed of Learning Automata (LA). The first involves the concept of utilizing the estimates of the reward probabilities, while the second involves discretizing the probability space in which the LA operates. This paper demonstrates how both of these can be simultaneously utilized, and in particular, by using the family of Bayesian estimates that have been proven to have distinct advantages over their maximum likelihood counterparts. The success of LA-…
Bayesian Inference for the Exponential Power Function Parameters
2008
This paper addresses the problem of obtaining the marginal posterior distributions, via Gibbs Sampler, for the parameters of the well-known generalized error distribution called Exponential Power Function (E.P.F.). This density represents a family of unimodal symmetric distributions with shapes varying from leptokurtic to platikurtic.
Commentary: Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength
2021
A Bayesian approach for predictive maintenance policy with imperfect monitoring
2009
In the traditional preventive maintenance policy, the periodic maintenance activities are scheduled on the basis of the a-priori information about the failure behaviour of the population which the component belongs to, by assuming a probability distribution function and by estimating the involved statistical parameters. On the contrary, with the predictive approach, the maintenance activity is scheduled on the basis of the real degradation level of the component. So, it is possible to reduce the failure probability and, at the same time, to use the component for almost all its useful life. For this reason, the predictive maintenance policy makes possible the reduction of the maintenance cos…
Medical news aggregation and ranking of taking into account the user needs
2019
The purpose of this work is to develop an intelligent information system that is designed for aggregation and ranking of news taking into account the needs of the user. The online market for mass media and the needs of readers, the purpose of their searches and moments is not enough to find the news is analyzed. A conceptual model of the information aggression system and ranking of news that would enable presentation of the work of the future intellectual information system, to show its structure is constructed. The methods and means for implementation of the intellectual information system are selected. An online resource for aggregation and ranking of news, news feeds and flexible setting…